Mesquite Nevada Commercial Real Estate Market, information every investor should know.
Mesquite Market 2010 Annual Report
I will give you all the market numbers here, but the real Million Dollar question is who will be Mesquite’s future housing target market and how much are they going to be willing and able to spend on their housing needs? If the numbers from 2010 are any indication, then $200,000 is the magic number for the higher end of the single-family home sales. Sound low? Consider this, Mesquite Nevada, may be at a crossroad. Many future retirees will be financially restricted to a market with housing under $100,000.
Mesquite can continue down the path set some years back as a high end, wealthy, golf, and gaming lifestyle community with great weather. Mesquite did a good job developing this image, but times are changing and the market has changed. The higher end home market in Mesquite has not yet seen the worst of this market.
For those claiming the credit for Mesquite’s booming past, the truth is, Mesquite’s growth had a great deal to do with market timing, funny money, and the Palm Springs hype. At the same time, many builders took advantage and cut corners, in many cases, they were just too busy to pay attention to the details, in other cases just greedy or both, but the consumers and the market allowed this.
The high-end housing market is a very competitive and shrinking market. New homes being built today continue to get smaller nationally. While Mesquite has focused on expensive HOA’s, gated neighborhoods, streetscapes, and image, our competition is focusing on future cost saving efficiency and sustainable living. The City of Mesquite talks about economic development, but talk is cheap, and in my opinion, their efforts at economic development are stagnant at best and maybe taking the city backwards. More baseball fields will not restart the real estate engine that has driven Mesquite’s economy for many years.
“Will I Have Enough Money in Retirement?” Very few baby boomers have not given this question considerable thought.
Even a free and clear home is not free to live in, homeowner association costs, taxes, insurance, maintenance, and utility costs all go on forever and will keep going up.
The boomers are just starting to retire this year and will be retiring at a pace of 8000 to 10,000 per day for the next nineteen years. These cost conscious retirees are Mesquite’s future target market.
Besides recent asset value losses and reduced personal net worth, they are concerned, if not living in fear about future health care costs, pension stability, social security, debt, inflation, and their future cost of living. If they are smart, they are deleveraging for retirement, not taking on more debt. For most, they grew up thinking real estate had little or no risk. The reality that there is downside risk in real estate has hit them, as a generation, hard.
We all know a huge percentage of the baby boomer generation has not saved enough money.
Looking forward, some of the most relevant results of the recent past will be the way they view their money. Their attitude about debt. Their attitude about investing in residential real estate is fundamentally changing. It is no longer viewed as a quick way to wealth; rather it is where they live. They have also realized that leverage or debt has plenty in common with a margin account used for trading stocks. Basically, gambling with borrowed money. The days of flipping homes are gone, and affordability is now and will be in the future their focus. They have become far more cautious and conservative. Finances in most cases will dictate their lifestyle choices, including where they will live.
Mesquite MLS showed 285 single family homes sold and closed with a median price of $184,900 for 1732 square feet or about $106 per square foot of heated space in 2010. Mesquite MLS as of mid January 2011 shows 355 active listed residential properties plus the unlisted new home supply, and Las Vegas MLS listed foreclosures, short sales, etc. There are likely well over 500 properties for sale today in Mesquite.
Clark County records show 73 total sales at Sun City for 2010; this includes resales and new home Pulte Sun City sales. The most recent 2011-email marketing from Sun City shows 24 Spec homes in their current standing inventory, these have come down in price to an average of around $150 per square foot asking price. There are also currently per Mesquite MLS 29 listed resale homes at Sun City, with a median asking price of $254,900 or $147 per square foot. Pulte Del Webb expected to sell 50 homes per month when they opened the project 43 months ago; it looks like that projection is off by about 70%.
On the residential vacant land side, five distressed subdivisions sold, all up in the newer Mesquite Heights/ Canyon Crest area. They consisted of a total of 223 acres and sold combined for $2,650,000 or $12,000 per acre. If the builder puts six homes per acre, that is an average cost basis of $2,000 per lot. Infrastructure and grading costs could bring this cost basis up to $30,000 per lot. The lower cost basis in the land should allow for very affordable homes to be built, that is a Heads Up! This could also be why only three single-family resale lots sold with a median price of $71,000, in 2010 per Mesquite MLS. As if 10,000 to 12,000 vacant lots are not enough, the vacant land market just got much larger as the Mesquite City Council approved annexing around 5000 acres in Lincoln County into Mesquite’s City limits for future development.
The condominium market closed 142 units at a median price of $79,900 for 1130 square feet or $73 per square foot, per Mesquite MLS.
The town home market closed 126 units at a median price of $115,000 for 1360 square feet or $92 per square foot, per Mesquite MLS.
The City of Mesquite issued 201 new home building permits in 2010, which is nearly double the 105 issued in 2009.
The Clark County records full transfer and bank sold residential properties for 89027 and 89034, Mesquite and Sun City respectively showed combined 514 transactions in 2009 and 721 transactions in 2010. November 2010 there were 13 pages of Notice of Defaults filed in Mesquite or 37 housing units in one month. Also in November 2010, there were 39 residential units on the Notice of Sale report. The NOD and NOS numbers are tomorrow’s foreclosures and then future inventory. Based on this one month, there are well over twelve months supply in distress and likely headed to the market. Some public information numbers provided as a service by Fidelity Title Mesquite Nevada. However, the opinions are all mine!
Only 8 residential units were foreclosed on in November, these show up as sales in these full transfer and bank numbers and everyone was purchased by Fannie, Freddie, a holding company, or a bank. On these sales, they generally pay the amount of the outstanding loan, which is not current market value, and these sales can be used to manipulate the price numbers. Buyer beware of numbers, you had better understand what you are looking at.
These numbers also prove the continued reluctance on the part of the Banks, Holding companies, Fannie, Freddie, and FDIC to actually confront and deal with reality and this can only prolong the mess. I believe in fact, it is prolonging it and making it worse. Expect more short sales, strategic defaults, and foreclosures. This continued high level of market distress and the upcoming inventory/supply combined with the new home building supply will continue to put downward pressure on residential prices in 2011. I would guess for some years to come.
The current Obama administrations efforts at saving homeowners and preserving values, is a total failure and huge waste of tax dollars. They do appear to be making the Big Banks wealthy again.
No commercial buildings or land closed through Mesquite MLS in 2010. Yet 13 commercial building permits were issued in 2009 and another 9 in 2010. There is a huge amount of empty commercial space, office, retail, light industrial, and a huge amount of vacant commercial land in nearly all zoning categories. This market segment is still in for a serious reality check.
The Mesquite Market appears to be getting worse from a supply and demand point of view.
If you are considering shopping the Mesquite real estate market without the benefit of a buyer’s agent representing you and your best interests, you could be placing yourself at risk of making a serious financial mistake. For more on agency and representation read MesquiteMarket.com
I represent buyers helping them make market informed buying decisions, and assist them in their negotiating, new or resale properties.
I would like to help you. Call me at 435-862-5951
Thanks, Chris W. Miller
Land in Nevada
Nevada Ranch Properties
Lincoln County Land Market
Mesquite NV Real Estate Market
Nevada Water Rights
Independence Realty
8275 S. Eastern Ave. #200
Las Vegas, NV 89123 702-733-9337
With Offices in Reno and Fernley
Serving The Entire State of Nevada
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Monday, October 11, 2010
Foreclosure Freeze
Mesquite Nevada Commercial Real Estate Market, information every investor should know.
How long can you live in a home once you stop making mortgage payments? Do you believe this free housing will increase or decrease if they stop all foreclosures?
What will a foreclosure freeze do to home values?
How much market manipulation can the consumer really take before they just stop buying and wait?
Do you think you can trust market values when the banks and the government are controlling interest rates, down payments, underwriting standards, inventory, and the media's presentation of the news?
Chris W. Miller
Independence Realty
435-862-5951
702-733-9337
Land in Nevada
Nevada Ranch Properties
Lincoln County Land Market
Mesquite NV Real Estate Market
Nevada Water Rights
How long can you live in a home once you stop making mortgage payments? Do you believe this free housing will increase or decrease if they stop all foreclosures?
What will a foreclosure freeze do to home values?
How much market manipulation can the consumer really take before they just stop buying and wait?
Do you think you can trust market values when the banks and the government are controlling interest rates, down payments, underwriting standards, inventory, and the media's presentation of the news?
Chris W. Miller
Independence Realty
435-862-5951
702-733-9337
Land in Nevada
Nevada Ranch Properties
Lincoln County Land Market
Mesquite NV Real Estate Market
Nevada Water Rights
Friday, May 28, 2010
Southern Nevada Water Authority's Water Problem
Mesquite Nevada Commercial Real Estate Market, information every investor should know.
Is Las Vegas Running out of Water? Southern Nevada Water Authority’s Water Problem
May 26, 2010 I attended the Southern Nevada Certified Commercial Investment Managers (CCIM) Chapter monthly meeting at the Rio in Las Vegas. I went for one reason, the title and speaker,
“How You May Be Impacted by Nevada’s Water Supply” presented by Pat Mulroy.
Mrs. Mulroy is the general manager of Southern Nevada Water Authority.
As a long time real estate professional who specializes in agricultural land with water rights in Nevada, I talk with Nevada’s farmers and ranchers’ everyday; I was shocked by the introduction.
The lady introducing Mrs. Mulroy said about her, among other things, how wonderful she is, how hard she works, how powerful she is, and then she said, “and something I’ll bet none of you know about her, She HATES COWS”.
Mrs. Mulroy took the stage and went on to say “anything that dumb and big has to be dangerous” referring to cattle. The friendly crowd of men and women dressed in suits and ties laughed.
I on the other hand, immediately took umbrage, and thought to myself, I wonder if this lady realizes where the food in the grocery store comes from.
I took notes the whole time she talked.
Her presentation seemed to me to be based on the fear factor.
She talked about snow pack in Colorado this past winter being at 67% of normal. She talked about continuing drought conditions. She explained that Lake Mead is running an annual deficit of approximately 2.7 million acre feet this year. There are 8.2 million acre feet coming in and 10.9 million acre feet going out.
Mrs. Mulroy explained the Lake Mead Water level measurements with future projections.
But first let me give you a little history, from 1939 to 2003 Lake Mead averaged 1173 foot elevation, the high water or maximum point for Lake Mead is 1229.
Today Lake Mead stands at about 1094. Since the canyon narrows as it descends, the water level drops faster and faster as it is over drafted, so expect the drop to accelerate.
Mrs. Mulroy explained that at the 1088 foot elevation level they could lose the upper intake for the water supply to Boulder City and 40% of Las Vegas’s supply.
She said, “At 1050 Hoover Dam stops generating power and that the dam supplies all of the electricity to Overton Power and Lincoln County Power.”
“At 1000 Vegas loses the lower intake that would literally cut off 90% of the water supply to Las Vegas and all of the water supply to Boulder City.”
She stated that, Southern Nevada Water Authority uses approximately 9.5 million acre feet per year, (that sounds like ten times too much to me) and once Lake Mead goes below 1025 there are only 4 to 5 million acre feet of water left in the reservoir.
She said the Lincoln and White Pine Counties pipeline will start construction in 2012 if the lake goes below 1075, period!
What makes you think they will stop in White Pine and Lincoln Counties?
Her facts can be verified at SNWA.http://www.snwa.com/html/wr_resource_plan.html
Pat Mulroy said “SNWA will be utilizing all the water rights it owns or controls in the Virgin River, which runs through Mesquite/Bunkerville and the Muddy River in Moapa/Overton".
Work has begun on a so called third straw. It has been referred to as a bath tub drain.
Michael Johnson, Virgin Valley Water District hydrologist, told me years ago the aquifer that runs under our Mesquite Valley travels under Lake Mead, could they tap into it?
She said “the hyperbole (hyper exaggerations) coming from rural Nevadan’s about their water table concerns was childish.” She went on to say “the rural Nevada farmers and ranchers are being Pig Headed.”
She referenced a recent USGS Basin and Range study that she claims shows plenty of extra water. I have not yet located any completed study.
When I asked, she said the reason for the huge draw down or overdraft, according to a recent NASA study in California’s Central Valley was the result of farmers irrigating and lack of government regulation. New space observations reveal that since October 2003, the aquifers for California's primary agricultural region -- the Central Valley -- and its major mountain water source -- the Sierra Nevada -- have lost nearly enough water combined to fill Lake Mead, America's largest reservoir.
Finally for the record, she said “there are plenty of un-appropriated water rights in Nevada and the Snake Basin is next in her sights.”
When I questioned her on that, she lashed out at me, “Do you have a better idea?”
She appears to me to be dead set on tapping into and draining rural East Central and North Eastern Nevada, Western Utah and Southern Idaho’s aquifers to supply Las Vegas.
They did it to Pahrump, Nevada.
She said” If I have to set up a cot in Harry Reid’s office, I will stay until I get a permanent chair”. I did not know Harry passed out water rights. That job belongs to the Nevada State Engineer.
She said to watch for a favorable Moodys Rating Agency report coming out that should help support project financing in Las Vegas. I wonder if Moodys knows any thing about water. Remember the rating agencies said the Mortgage Backed Securities were safe and secure too.
She may be powerful, but based on her comments, attitude and general demeanor; clearly she is not as sharp as you would expect!
That does not mean you should underestimate her ability or determination to get this done.
You can learn more about me by searching “Irrigated Nevada farm and ranch land with water rights for sale” on any search engine.
Chris W. Miller
Independence Realty
435-862-5951
Land in Nevada
Nevada Ranch Properties
Lincoln County Land Market
Nevada Water Rights
Mesquite Nevada Real Estate Market
Is Las Vegas Running out of Water? Southern Nevada Water Authority’s Water Problem
May 26, 2010 I attended the Southern Nevada Certified Commercial Investment Managers (CCIM) Chapter monthly meeting at the Rio in Las Vegas. I went for one reason, the title and speaker,
“How You May Be Impacted by Nevada’s Water Supply” presented by Pat Mulroy.
Mrs. Mulroy is the general manager of Southern Nevada Water Authority.
As a long time real estate professional who specializes in agricultural land with water rights in Nevada, I talk with Nevada’s farmers and ranchers’ everyday; I was shocked by the introduction.
The lady introducing Mrs. Mulroy said about her, among other things, how wonderful she is, how hard she works, how powerful she is, and then she said, “and something I’ll bet none of you know about her, She HATES COWS”.
Mrs. Mulroy took the stage and went on to say “anything that dumb and big has to be dangerous” referring to cattle. The friendly crowd of men and women dressed in suits and ties laughed.
I on the other hand, immediately took umbrage, and thought to myself, I wonder if this lady realizes where the food in the grocery store comes from.
I took notes the whole time she talked.
Her presentation seemed to me to be based on the fear factor.
She talked about snow pack in Colorado this past winter being at 67% of normal. She talked about continuing drought conditions. She explained that Lake Mead is running an annual deficit of approximately 2.7 million acre feet this year. There are 8.2 million acre feet coming in and 10.9 million acre feet going out.
Mrs. Mulroy explained the Lake Mead Water level measurements with future projections.
But first let me give you a little history, from 1939 to 2003 Lake Mead averaged 1173 foot elevation, the high water or maximum point for Lake Mead is 1229.
Today Lake Mead stands at about 1094. Since the canyon narrows as it descends, the water level drops faster and faster as it is over drafted, so expect the drop to accelerate.
Mrs. Mulroy explained that at the 1088 foot elevation level they could lose the upper intake for the water supply to Boulder City and 40% of Las Vegas’s supply.
She said, “At 1050 Hoover Dam stops generating power and that the dam supplies all of the electricity to Overton Power and Lincoln County Power.”
“At 1000 Vegas loses the lower intake that would literally cut off 90% of the water supply to Las Vegas and all of the water supply to Boulder City.”
She stated that, Southern Nevada Water Authority uses approximately 9.5 million acre feet per year, (that sounds like ten times too much to me) and once Lake Mead goes below 1025 there are only 4 to 5 million acre feet of water left in the reservoir.
She said the Lincoln and White Pine Counties pipeline will start construction in 2012 if the lake goes below 1075, period!
What makes you think they will stop in White Pine and Lincoln Counties?
Her facts can be verified at SNWA.http://www.snwa.com/html/wr_resource_plan.html
Pat Mulroy said “SNWA will be utilizing all the water rights it owns or controls in the Virgin River, which runs through Mesquite/Bunkerville and the Muddy River in Moapa/Overton".
Work has begun on a so called third straw. It has been referred to as a bath tub drain.
Michael Johnson, Virgin Valley Water District hydrologist, told me years ago the aquifer that runs under our Mesquite Valley travels under Lake Mead, could they tap into it?
She said “the hyperbole (hyper exaggerations) coming from rural Nevadan’s about their water table concerns was childish.” She went on to say “the rural Nevada farmers and ranchers are being Pig Headed.”
She referenced a recent USGS Basin and Range study that she claims shows plenty of extra water. I have not yet located any completed study.
When I asked, she said the reason for the huge draw down or overdraft, according to a recent NASA study in California’s Central Valley was the result of farmers irrigating and lack of government regulation. New space observations reveal that since October 2003, the aquifers for California's primary agricultural region -- the Central Valley -- and its major mountain water source -- the Sierra Nevada -- have lost nearly enough water combined to fill Lake Mead, America's largest reservoir.
Finally for the record, she said “there are plenty of un-appropriated water rights in Nevada and the Snake Basin is next in her sights.”
When I questioned her on that, she lashed out at me, “Do you have a better idea?”
She appears to me to be dead set on tapping into and draining rural East Central and North Eastern Nevada, Western Utah and Southern Idaho’s aquifers to supply Las Vegas.
They did it to Pahrump, Nevada.
She said” If I have to set up a cot in Harry Reid’s office, I will stay until I get a permanent chair”. I did not know Harry passed out water rights. That job belongs to the Nevada State Engineer.
She said to watch for a favorable Moodys Rating Agency report coming out that should help support project financing in Las Vegas. I wonder if Moodys knows any thing about water. Remember the rating agencies said the Mortgage Backed Securities were safe and secure too.
She may be powerful, but based on her comments, attitude and general demeanor; clearly she is not as sharp as you would expect!
That does not mean you should underestimate her ability or determination to get this done.
You can learn more about me by searching “Irrigated Nevada farm and ranch land with water rights for sale” on any search engine.
Land in Nevada
Nevada Ranch Properties
Lincoln County Land Market
Nevada Water Rights
Mesquite Nevada Real Estate Market
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Water Rights in Nevada
Mesquite Nevada Commercial Real Estate Market, information every investor should know.
Nevada Ranch and Farm Land with Water Rights Issues
Are you unsure if all the hype about water and food shortages in the future is real or just?
The science is mounting and it is not any one single cause or source. You may not buy into global warming or maybe you do and just do not believe it is man caused. Either way drought is real.
As mentioned the science is mounting in favor of serious problems in coming decades for mankind’s ability to provide adequate fresh drinking water and food to the increasing billions of us on the planet.
In previous blogs I have referenced National Geographic’s April 2010 Special Issue, “Water Our Thirsty World”. They clearly believe we have a problem already in many parts of the world including parts of the United States.
A new study called, the gravity recovery and climate experiment, or GRACE shows the following.
“Combined, California's Sacramento and San Joaquin drainage basins have shed more than 30 cubic kilometers of water since late 2003, said Jay Famiglietti, UCI Earth system science professor and director of the UC Center for Hydrologic Modeling. A cubic kilometer is about 264.2 billion gallons, enough to fill 400,000 Olympic-size pools. The bulk of the loss occurred in the state's agricultural Central Valley. The Central Valley depends on irrigation from both groundwater wells and diverted surface water.
"GRACE data reveal groundwater in these basins is being pumped for irrigation at rates that are not sustainable if current trends continue," Famiglietti said. "This is leading to declining water tables, water shortages, decreasing crop sizes and continued land subsidence. The findings have major implications for the U.S. economy, as California's Central Valley is home to one-sixth of all U.S. irrigated land and the state leads the nation in agricultural production and exports."
The loss is nearly enough to fill Lake Mead, America’s largest reservoir and Las Vegas Nevada’s primary water source. The Central Valley’s major source of water comes from the Sierra Nevada Mountain Range.
Source: University of California - Irvine (2009, December 15). California's troubled waters: Satellite-based findings reveal significant groundwater loss in Central Valley. ScienceDaily. Retrieved May 23, 2010, from http://www.sciencedaily.com /releases/2009/12/091214152022.htm
Next week I will be attending a luncheon in Las Vegas;
How You May be Impacted by Nevada’s Water Supply
Presentation by: Pat Mulroy
General Manager, Southern Nevada Water Authority
I will report what she has to say about our water in Nevada.
Chris W. Miller
Independence Realty
435-862-5951
Land in Nevada
Nevada Ranch Properties
Lincoln County Land Market
Nevada Water Rights
Mesquite Nevada Real Estate Market
Nevada Ranch and Farm Land with Water Rights Issues
Are you unsure if all the hype about water and food shortages in the future is real or just?
The science is mounting and it is not any one single cause or source. You may not buy into global warming or maybe you do and just do not believe it is man caused. Either way drought is real.
As mentioned the science is mounting in favor of serious problems in coming decades for mankind’s ability to provide adequate fresh drinking water and food to the increasing billions of us on the planet.
In previous blogs I have referenced National Geographic’s April 2010 Special Issue, “Water Our Thirsty World”. They clearly believe we have a problem already in many parts of the world including parts of the United States.
A new study called, the gravity recovery and climate experiment, or GRACE shows the following.
“Combined, California's Sacramento and San Joaquin drainage basins have shed more than 30 cubic kilometers of water since late 2003, said Jay Famiglietti, UCI Earth system science professor and director of the UC Center for Hydrologic Modeling. A cubic kilometer is about 264.2 billion gallons, enough to fill 400,000 Olympic-size pools. The bulk of the loss occurred in the state's agricultural Central Valley. The Central Valley depends on irrigation from both groundwater wells and diverted surface water.
"GRACE data reveal groundwater in these basins is being pumped for irrigation at rates that are not sustainable if current trends continue," Famiglietti said. "This is leading to declining water tables, water shortages, decreasing crop sizes and continued land subsidence. The findings have major implications for the U.S. economy, as California's Central Valley is home to one-sixth of all U.S. irrigated land and the state leads the nation in agricultural production and exports."
The loss is nearly enough to fill Lake Mead, America’s largest reservoir and Las Vegas Nevada’s primary water source. The Central Valley’s major source of water comes from the Sierra Nevada Mountain Range.
Source: University of California - Irvine (2009, December 15). California's troubled waters: Satellite-based findings reveal significant groundwater loss in Central Valley. ScienceDaily. Retrieved May 23, 2010, from http://www.sciencedaily.com /releases/2009/12/091214152022.htm
Next week I will be attending a luncheon in Las Vegas;
How You May be Impacted by Nevada’s Water Supply
Presentation by: Pat Mulroy
General Manager, Southern Nevada Water Authority
I will report what she has to say about our water in Nevada.
Chris W. Miller
Independence Realty
435-862-5951
Land in Nevada
Nevada Ranch Properties
Lincoln County Land Market
Nevada Water Rights
Mesquite Nevada Real Estate Market
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Water Rights, Irrigated Nevada Land with Water Rights, Nevada Cattle Ranch Land, Nevada Farm Land with Water Rights For Sale
Mesquite Nevada Commercial Real Estate Market, information every investor should know.
In an effort to improve exposure and reach a broader for the Nevada irrigated farm and ranch land with water rights business market Chris W. Miller is proud to announce his new association with:
Independence Realty
Reno and Las Vegas Real Estate and Western Nevada Properties
Leo Dupre, Broker-Owner, Independence Realty 775-691-8888
1005 Terminal Way, Suite 155 Reno, NV 89502
460 W. Main St #101, Fernley, NV 89408
8275 S. Eastern Ave. #200 Las Vegas, NV 89123
Serving Las Vegas, Reno-Sparks, Virginia City and Fernley
My new association with these offices will give the many Nevada farm and ranch land properties with water rights listed with me greater exposure to the entire state of Nevada irrigated farm and ranch land with water rights market. Property listings will soon be available on the Las Vegas and Northern Nevada MLS systems.
To discuss buying or selling Irrigated Nevada farm and ranch land with water rights call Chris today.
Chris W. Miller
Independence Realty
Las Vegas, NV 89123
435-862-5951
702-733-9337
Email Chris at: chris@mesquitemarket.com
Monday, January 18, 2010
Mesquite Nevada Real Market Report, Real Estate 2010 Style
Mesquite Nevada Commercial Real Estate Market, information every investor should know.
A lender recently told me, 80% of the buyers he is pre-qualifying can not get a loan.
I have a nagging fear that our real estate markets as we have known them throughout the last 70 years will not be restored until the Federation gets back to its foundation. The nation was built on principles of individual liberty, individual responsibility, and free enterprise. As a democracy we elect officials to represent us, uphold the Constitution, and follow the laws, today they appear to be doing few of these things.
The majority of the money currently being loaned as mortgages is government backed, through FHA, HUD, USDA, VA and in the secondary markets of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae. Yes a conventional bank or mortgage broker may take your loan application but virtually all the loans are being sold into these government agencies. The private secondary mortgage market has become nearly non existent at current rates. Fannie and Freddie were not designed to be slush funds for bad decisions or funded long term by tax dollars. In order for the Mortgage companies to continue to lend at current rates the US government may have to EXPLICITLY guarantee these agency (MBS) Mortgage backed securities cash flow investments.
The government regulations have gone from “making homes affordable” think: Bush administration, ACORN, and the repeal of Glass-Steagall, although it goes back much further in history. To today’s consumer protection laws, making it much more difficult to get a loan. When the government exits the mortgage business, rates will go up.
The federal reserve has spent 1.122 trillion of the 1.25 trillion given it to buy (MBS), the program is scheduled to end March 2010, along with the “Home Buyers Tax Credits”. The federal reserve can keep rates low for the banks to make huge profits on short rates but it really has limited control of the ten year and longer end of the bond markets which effect mortgage rates more directly.
2.8 million Foreclosures hit the market in 2009. Fitch ratings have warned that in the next twenty four months another one half trillion dollars in prime, Alt-A, interest only, option arms, and sub prime mortgages will adjust or recast and many of these are middle and upper middle class families. Creating unsustainable payment shock for millions more Americans and millions more foreclosures. Distress in real estate tends to lead to more distress, and finding a bottom may involve unemployment numbers.
RealtyTrac says “No End in Sight”.
This is ALL about unsustainable debt, consumer debt, state level debt, federal level debt, and out of control spending.
Back to the start, the Federation is governed by laws; states are required to balance budgets, consumers are required to make mortgage payments or suffer the consequences. Our elected officials can not save home values, they can not keep people living in more home than they can afford, they can not put people in more home than they can afford and expect them to make it, and they can not modify people into a home they could never afford in the first place. They are throwing our good money after trillions in bad money. They, the elected officials, must be held accountable for bringing our children’s nation to the brink of bankruptcy.
When the dust finally settles and the unrealized losses are all on the books, the wealth effect in dollars lost will be staggering beyond any numbers currently being discussed, the effects will last generations. These losses will show up in places like pension funds of all kinds, 401k plans, other retirement accounts, sovereign wealth funds, and many of the world’s governments. States with budget deficits and falling tax revenues will be asked to cover more and more of the federal debt burden.
None of this is good for the current home price market today or tomorrow. The median price home sold in Mesquite during the forth quarter 2009 dropped to $192,063 or $118 per square foot. The median priced condo sold for $75,000 or $70 per square foot, and the median priced town home sold for $108,000 or $78 per square foot.
Ego, greed and monetary policy have taken us down the wrong path. Government intervention and efforts to manipulate the market created the environment for the crisis to occur; now it threatens to prolong and deepen the damage. We as a country must quit spending money we do not have, buying homes we can not afford, and curb government spending programs. And until we as a nation get back to a free and open market, principles of individual liberty, individual responsibility, and free enterprise, I believe recovery is unlikely.
Real recovery can only begin with honesty at every level, at home, in business, and most importantly at the government level. In my humble opinion we have little chance of any real sustainable financial recovery until we accept these facts and principles and then, act on them.
Expect real estate values to continue to drop more in 2010 due to the massive amount of distressed inventory of properties sitting out there and coming to the market.
Chris W. Miller has 33 years in the real estate industry, was trained and worked as a financial advisor for Morgan Stanley Dean Witter and currently specializes in Irrigated Nevada land with water rights with ERA Brokers Consolidated in Mesquite Nevada. He can be reached at 702-346-7200 or chris@mesquitemarket.com
A lender recently told me, 80% of the buyers he is pre-qualifying can not get a loan.
I have a nagging fear that our real estate markets as we have known them throughout the last 70 years will not be restored until the Federation gets back to its foundation. The nation was built on principles of individual liberty, individual responsibility, and free enterprise. As a democracy we elect officials to represent us, uphold the Constitution, and follow the laws, today they appear to be doing few of these things.
The majority of the money currently being loaned as mortgages is government backed, through FHA, HUD, USDA, VA and in the secondary markets of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae. Yes a conventional bank or mortgage broker may take your loan application but virtually all the loans are being sold into these government agencies. The private secondary mortgage market has become nearly non existent at current rates. Fannie and Freddie were not designed to be slush funds for bad decisions or funded long term by tax dollars. In order for the Mortgage companies to continue to lend at current rates the US government may have to EXPLICITLY guarantee these agency (MBS) Mortgage backed securities cash flow investments.
The government regulations have gone from “making homes affordable” think: Bush administration, ACORN, and the repeal of Glass-Steagall, although it goes back much further in history. To today’s consumer protection laws, making it much more difficult to get a loan. When the government exits the mortgage business, rates will go up.
The federal reserve has spent 1.122 trillion of the 1.25 trillion given it to buy (MBS), the program is scheduled to end March 2010, along with the “Home Buyers Tax Credits”. The federal reserve can keep rates low for the banks to make huge profits on short rates but it really has limited control of the ten year and longer end of the bond markets which effect mortgage rates more directly.
2.8 million Foreclosures hit the market in 2009. Fitch ratings have warned that in the next twenty four months another one half trillion dollars in prime, Alt-A, interest only, option arms, and sub prime mortgages will adjust or recast and many of these are middle and upper middle class families. Creating unsustainable payment shock for millions more Americans and millions more foreclosures. Distress in real estate tends to lead to more distress, and finding a bottom may involve unemployment numbers.
RealtyTrac says “No End in Sight”.
This is ALL about unsustainable debt, consumer debt, state level debt, federal level debt, and out of control spending.
Back to the start, the Federation is governed by laws; states are required to balance budgets, consumers are required to make mortgage payments or suffer the consequences. Our elected officials can not save home values, they can not keep people living in more home than they can afford, they can not put people in more home than they can afford and expect them to make it, and they can not modify people into a home they could never afford in the first place. They are throwing our good money after trillions in bad money. They, the elected officials, must be held accountable for bringing our children’s nation to the brink of bankruptcy.
When the dust finally settles and the unrealized losses are all on the books, the wealth effect in dollars lost will be staggering beyond any numbers currently being discussed, the effects will last generations. These losses will show up in places like pension funds of all kinds, 401k plans, other retirement accounts, sovereign wealth funds, and many of the world’s governments. States with budget deficits and falling tax revenues will be asked to cover more and more of the federal debt burden.
None of this is good for the current home price market today or tomorrow. The median price home sold in Mesquite during the forth quarter 2009 dropped to $192,063 or $118 per square foot. The median priced condo sold for $75,000 or $70 per square foot, and the median priced town home sold for $108,000 or $78 per square foot.
Ego, greed and monetary policy have taken us down the wrong path. Government intervention and efforts to manipulate the market created the environment for the crisis to occur; now it threatens to prolong and deepen the damage. We as a country must quit spending money we do not have, buying homes we can not afford, and curb government spending programs. And until we as a nation get back to a free and open market, principles of individual liberty, individual responsibility, and free enterprise, I believe recovery is unlikely.
Real recovery can only begin with honesty at every level, at home, in business, and most importantly at the government level. In my humble opinion we have little chance of any real sustainable financial recovery until we accept these facts and principles and then, act on them.
Expect real estate values to continue to drop more in 2010 due to the massive amount of distressed inventory of properties sitting out there and coming to the market.
Chris W. Miller has 33 years in the real estate industry, was trained and worked as a financial advisor for Morgan Stanley Dean Witter and currently specializes in Irrigated Nevada land with water rights with ERA Brokers Consolidated in Mesquite Nevada. He can be reached at 702-346-7200 or chris@mesquitemarket.com
Mesquite Nevada Commercial Real Estate Market Report December 2009
Mesquite Nevada Commercial Real Estate Market, information every investor should know.
Mesquite Nevada Commercial Market Update
December 2009
By Chris W. Miller
There are currently only 12 active commercial buildings listed in the Mesquite MLS, and only 18 commercial land parcels listed active for sale in the Mesquite MLS. Commercial real estate is listed and generalized into these two categories in the Mesquite MLS. I have focused on the improvements, not the vacant land and attempted to break it down for you by highest and best use. There are some properties that do fall into more than one category.
After a careful physical review it appears that there are closer to 30 buildings available for sale or lease, and 45 commercial land parcels for sale or with an option to lease with build to suit in some cases.
Business closings have been dramatic over the past twenty four months, in the neighborhood of 30 have closed and are gone, including a large casino, numerous restaurants, retail shops, builders, associated contractors, suppliers, title companies, and various other small businesses.
In general, in retail space the vacancy rates range from 100% to as little as 20% per complex, virtually none are 100% occupied. The overall vacancy rate in Mesquite for retail space appears to be running between 40 to 50% of available space. There are between 50 and 70 vacant retail spaces, depending on space size. A vacant 8000 square foot building could count as one space or four units. I would guess there is between 100,000 and 120,000 square feet of idle retail space in the market.
Light industrial space may be worse than retail space in terms of vacancy rates, at least nine buildings are 100% vacant with close to 125,000 square feet of idle space. Then there are another ten to twelve buildings with some vacancy. My best guess is these have another 30,000 to 50,000 feet of idle unoccupied space. There may be as much as 175,000 square feet of vacant light industrial space.
Falcon Mesa Business Park Complex, this complex is a combination of office and retail multi purpose use. Seven of 13 of the total buildings appear to be vacant. When a building was half occupied, I have counted that as half and included these buildings in the above mentioned vacant retail square footage.
The Town and Country Plaza on Pioneer Blvd. has seven tenants, all retail except AG Edwards which is the only office space leased. These early tenants are paying close to $1.50 per foot, but I believe that future new tenants may get a better rate. My best guess is that it is 20% retail and 5% office space occupied. The owner is motivated and very negotiable but will not commit to any numbers without a face to face meeting with the prospect.
The Oasis Professional Office Park at Pinnacle and Oasis Blvd has eleven buildings total and 6 appear to be vacant and for sale or lease. The Brickyard on Mesquite Blvd appears to have ten vacant spaces out of a total of approximately 30.
The 100% vacant buildings in Mesquite include, 175 and 195 Willis Carrier Canyon (40,000 Sq. Ft each), Capital Materials Building 6200 Sq. Ft on 2.58 acres with yard and pole barns, two buildings located in front of Capital Materials Buildings, Calais clubhouse building, office building located in front of Calais clubhouse, Cinco Office building at 4200 Sq. Ft., Harley’s Auto Repair shop on Mesquite Blvd, Rio Virgin Grill Restaurant, Credit Union building on Pioneer in front of Wal-Mart, Walgreen’s Building on corner of Falcon Ridge and Pioneer, Buffalos Restaurant, Wolf Creek Office Building, Convention Center Building, NAPA auto building on Mesquite Blvd, 6000 warehouse on Aztec, 4800 tilt up building at corner of Hardy Way and Bowler, a Building East of Sears. There are a few others but this gives you a sense of the magnitude.
There is vacancy in every commercial complex and as I talked to leasing agents and building owners there was one clear theme, they are begging for people who will pay $1 to $1.50 per foot. They all offer possible tenant improvements with two to five year leases. They hint at possible lower rates, but when pressed, the lowest offer I got was a possible .50 per foot from an agent who would have to ask and see. Many of these buildings have no tenant improvements and have been vacant for over two years.
If building owners are giving away expensive tenant improvements, free months rent, paying taxes, insurance, and CAM fees, then the net is far less than current asking rents.
We have not really seen price reductions in sales prices or lease rates. The owners continue to hire agents who are inexperienced with little or no commercial background who will tell the owners only what they want to hear. I would liken it to taking a dangerous river rafting trip with a guide who knows less about rafting, the river and current conditions than you do, risky at best. They list property with no facts to support prices and at reduced commission rates, most CCIM or experienced commercial agents basically refuse to waste their time with amateur agents and over priced properties.
Appraisers call me frequently looking for comps and since there are no comps in over two years I suggest they use a capitalization approach. Of course that leads to a fair market rents discussion. In my opinion, over the next few years until Mesquite grows into the supply .40 to .60 cents a foot will be the going rate. At an 8% cap rate and .50 cents a foot the average asking price is on average about twice the actual market value. Of course the owners and listing agents are sure this approach makes no sense at all.
There is much speculation in the market about the potential effects of the Desert Falls Sports Complex; it is being used by many as justification for future values. It remains to be seen if it will ever materialize. Until it does I would say “What you see is what you get”
Mesquite Nevada Commercial Market Update
December 2009
By Chris W. Miller
There are currently only 12 active commercial buildings listed in the Mesquite MLS, and only 18 commercial land parcels listed active for sale in the Mesquite MLS. Commercial real estate is listed and generalized into these two categories in the Mesquite MLS. I have focused on the improvements, not the vacant land and attempted to break it down for you by highest and best use. There are some properties that do fall into more than one category.
After a careful physical review it appears that there are closer to 30 buildings available for sale or lease, and 45 commercial land parcels for sale or with an option to lease with build to suit in some cases.
Business closings have been dramatic over the past twenty four months, in the neighborhood of 30 have closed and are gone, including a large casino, numerous restaurants, retail shops, builders, associated contractors, suppliers, title companies, and various other small businesses.
In general, in retail space the vacancy rates range from 100% to as little as 20% per complex, virtually none are 100% occupied. The overall vacancy rate in Mesquite for retail space appears to be running between 40 to 50% of available space. There are between 50 and 70 vacant retail spaces, depending on space size. A vacant 8000 square foot building could count as one space or four units. I would guess there is between 100,000 and 120,000 square feet of idle retail space in the market.
Light industrial space may be worse than retail space in terms of vacancy rates, at least nine buildings are 100% vacant with close to 125,000 square feet of idle space. Then there are another ten to twelve buildings with some vacancy. My best guess is these have another 30,000 to 50,000 feet of idle unoccupied space. There may be as much as 175,000 square feet of vacant light industrial space.
Falcon Mesa Business Park Complex, this complex is a combination of office and retail multi purpose use. Seven of 13 of the total buildings appear to be vacant. When a building was half occupied, I have counted that as half and included these buildings in the above mentioned vacant retail square footage.
The Town and Country Plaza on Pioneer Blvd. has seven tenants, all retail except AG Edwards which is the only office space leased. These early tenants are paying close to $1.50 per foot, but I believe that future new tenants may get a better rate. My best guess is that it is 20% retail and 5% office space occupied. The owner is motivated and very negotiable but will not commit to any numbers without a face to face meeting with the prospect.
The Oasis Professional Office Park at Pinnacle and Oasis Blvd has eleven buildings total and 6 appear to be vacant and for sale or lease. The Brickyard on Mesquite Blvd appears to have ten vacant spaces out of a total of approximately 30.
The 100% vacant buildings in Mesquite include, 175 and 195 Willis Carrier Canyon (40,000 Sq. Ft each), Capital Materials Building 6200 Sq. Ft on 2.58 acres with yard and pole barns, two buildings located in front of Capital Materials Buildings, Calais clubhouse building, office building located in front of Calais clubhouse, Cinco Office building at 4200 Sq. Ft., Harley’s Auto Repair shop on Mesquite Blvd, Rio Virgin Grill Restaurant, Credit Union building on Pioneer in front of Wal-Mart, Walgreen’s Building on corner of Falcon Ridge and Pioneer, Buffalos Restaurant, Wolf Creek Office Building, Convention Center Building, NAPA auto building on Mesquite Blvd, 6000 warehouse on Aztec, 4800 tilt up building at corner of Hardy Way and Bowler, a Building East of Sears. There are a few others but this gives you a sense of the magnitude.
There is vacancy in every commercial complex and as I talked to leasing agents and building owners there was one clear theme, they are begging for people who will pay $1 to $1.50 per foot. They all offer possible tenant improvements with two to five year leases. They hint at possible lower rates, but when pressed, the lowest offer I got was a possible .50 per foot from an agent who would have to ask and see. Many of these buildings have no tenant improvements and have been vacant for over two years.
If building owners are giving away expensive tenant improvements, free months rent, paying taxes, insurance, and CAM fees, then the net is far less than current asking rents.
We have not really seen price reductions in sales prices or lease rates. The owners continue to hire agents who are inexperienced with little or no commercial background who will tell the owners only what they want to hear. I would liken it to taking a dangerous river rafting trip with a guide who knows less about rafting, the river and current conditions than you do, risky at best. They list property with no facts to support prices and at reduced commission rates, most CCIM or experienced commercial agents basically refuse to waste their time with amateur agents and over priced properties.
Appraisers call me frequently looking for comps and since there are no comps in over two years I suggest they use a capitalization approach. Of course that leads to a fair market rents discussion. In my opinion, over the next few years until Mesquite grows into the supply .40 to .60 cents a foot will be the going rate. At an 8% cap rate and .50 cents a foot the average asking price is on average about twice the actual market value. Of course the owners and listing agents are sure this approach makes no sense at all.
There is much speculation in the market about the potential effects of the Desert Falls Sports Complex; it is being used by many as justification for future values. It remains to be seen if it will ever materialize. Until it does I would say “What you see is what you get”
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